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Peter R. Bain

prbain@tradingsmarts.com

 

How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time

    Big Dogs Exposed    

 

Sound familiar?  You have spent years surfing the 'Net, and studying books and charts in search of commodities investment research and commodity trading rules.  All you really want is the 'Holy Grail' of entry techniques.  You usually end up adding one indicator on top of another, switching from one guru to the next, until you are so confused and unsure of your entry system that you are unable to make entry decisions and stay organized.  You get so distracted and frustrated that you quit watching the markets all together!

Shows you how FAST you can make money when the BIG DOGS make their move - by shamelessly copying this winning group .  Even I am STILL surprised by how much power they have over ALL markets - not just commodities futures, currencies, and stocks.

Divergence

Divergence is just another name for money.

Let's look at this phenomenon in relation to my favourite indicator - MACD.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is a momentum oscillator developed by Gerald Appel in the early 1970s.  Fluctuations in prices are reflected in MACD; if there is a sudden increase in price, the MACD will move upward.  It fluctuates above and below a neutral 0.00 zone, which is why it is called an oscillator.  The 0.00 zone is the horizontal equilibrium line.  If MACD is above the zero line, it is bullish.  If it is below the zero line, it is bearish.

FIGURE:  May 2002 Soybean Oil - MACD passing through the zero line successfully anticipates the beginning of a strong trend.  The crossing of the fast line (in blue) above the signal line (red) is a buy signal.  The MACD does what its name implies: it measures the divergence, or convergence, of a shorter moving average with a longer one.

The blue line, which is the MACD "fast" line, reflects the difference between two exponential moving averages (EMA).  In the figure above, you see the 12- and 26-period EMA, which are commonly used.  The red line, or signal line, is the EMA of the MACD fast line.  To calculate the signal line, the nine-period EMA was used in the above example.  Again, it is commonly used.

In the chart above, you will notice a phenomenon called "divergence".  You can see that the blue line formed a higher low at the spot above "Feb" than it did at the spot above "02" - all the while price was still trending down.  This is called "divergence," and is another powerful use of the MACD indicator.  Basically, what divergence is telling us in the above example is to buy bean oil just past the Feb mark.

For more on the use of MACD, please click here


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