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Hi gang! Thanks for coming back! And, how was your
month? Lots of good reads this month.
Online version:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletter0204.htm
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www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterwhitelisting.htm
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4.
5.
6.
7.
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9. |
Past Editions
Managed Accounts
Going, Going, Gone
Mutual Fund in a Stock
Bonds with Pivots Program
The Forex: The Hottest Market
Hot Commodities, Currencies, Stocks
Watching the Grass Grow with Futures Options
Market Commentary: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
(Please click on any link above to go to the
desired topic.)
(Please check out the trading tips at the end of
Section 7.)
If you have any questions regarding this
Newsletter or its contents, please contact prbain@tradingsmarts.com
Please do not reply to the “From” address in this
e-mail. Thank you!
Please
don't miss Section 3 of the last Newsletter for the announcement of a new
service. You will find it by clicking here:
stock market successful trading strategies new
service
You
will find a short-but-sweet trading strategy from
W. D. Gann, and lots of new stuff, at the beginning of Section 6 in this
Newsletter. Just click on the Forex link
above (No. 6).
And,
for all you Forex traders out there, new and old,
don't miss a trader's hot new addition to my
trading strategy towards the end of Section 6 -
in the yellow box - in last month's Newsletter:
currency trading strategy | | |
Greetings
from Peter at
www.TradingSmarts.com You are receiving
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The
TradingSmarts Newsletter plumbs the profundities of the markets, and
issues forth 'piranha' trading strategies.
Please
don’t click away or delete too soon, or you’ll miss my commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies coming up shortly. Also, you will find
commodity, currency, and stock picks of the month later on in this
Newsletter.
You should
view this Newsletter while you are connected to the Internet, so
that you can see the imbedded charts (if any) and graphics. It
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Peter Sez - Peter’s
Rants 'n Raves: Yeah, the U.S. dollar is down, but the
U.S. is not out. You're in for a shock when you find out how
much money has been pouring into the U.S. lately. Check it out
at:
stock market successful trading strategies US
And, while you're at it, check
these links out too:
U.S. Dollar Collapse:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarcollapse.htm
U.S. Dollar Jitters:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettergreenbackjitters.htm
U.S. Dollar Protection:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarindexput.htm
U.S Dollar - What Soros Thinks:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettersorosonthedollar.htm
U.S. Dollar - The Straight Skinny:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarstraightskinny.htm
U.S. Dollar Woes - Its Future:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterdollartumble.htm
Other Useful Links:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterbackissues.htm
Quote of the Month:
"Find the trend whose premise is false,"
says George Soros, "and bet against it."
Got Some Success Stories? If
you have a story to tell, please let me know, and I’ll publish it
right here – in the very next issue. Don’t be bashful. Share
and share alike. Share your secrets with my wide audience.
We won’t live long enough to make all the mistakes imaginable in
this business. So, let’s help each other. I don’t know
all the answers. I am sure you know some real beauts.
For those
of you who missed previous issues of this Newsletter, you can read
them online by going to: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
If your
trading is all foam and no beer, be sure to read my Newsletter on a
regular basis. And, please send me suggestions for things you
want to hear about.
As a service to my valued
readership, I am going to give you some pointers on where to park
your money in Forex managed accounts, which seems to be a hot topic
these days. But, before I get into it, I should point out that
I do not benefit by sharing this information with you in any way.
This is strictly for your information, and you should do your own due
diligence.
The minimum for Dynex 10 to 1 is 20k, and the
5 to 1 is 40k. The fees are based upon the leveraged trading
size at .1% per month. For example, if a client put in 20 k in
the 10 to 1, his leverage would allow a trading size of 200,000 x
.1%. The trader also makes an incentive fee of 25% of profits
above the high water mark. The fees are detailed at dynexcorp.com.
According to one of my customers, an acquaintance of his, who has
been trading FX since May, and doing VERY well off the daily chart,
has researched recommendation services extensively. He has it
down to two:
Pronet Analytics in England (1,000 pounds a month to subscribe, but
with a fantastic hit rate); and,
Global markets (USD$700 a month). He's just trialing them now.
If you know of any other services that rate
highly in your opinion, please let me know:
prbain@tradingsmarts.com
If you want to hone your
trading skills in commodities, currencies, stocks, or markets in
general, get the scoop at: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
Smith Barney's Alan Shaw is
65 years old, and is a 45-year veteran of Wall Street.
Probably the dean of technical analysis on Wall Street, he received
the No. 1 ranking for technical analysis on Wall Street in a survey
by Institutional Investor magazine last year – along with colleague
Louise Yamada.
Mr. Shaw is of the opinion
that the latest market rally will be over some time in the second
half of this year. He cites as proof the lessons learned in
the history books, wherein we're only supposed to experience one
bull market run in our lifetime.
That rally for us would have
been the one just ended – the one that started in 1982 and ended in
1999. Any gains now are taking place within the context of a
longer-term bear market. Watch out below. Housing prices
too.
I share his opinion, and
have been calling for an 'up-market' until the April - November
timeframe – more like November now.
Mr. Shaw is high on
basic-materials stocks, such as Alcoa (the world's largest maker of
aluminum), Inco (the world's second largest nickel producer), and
Newmont Mining Corp. (the No. 1 producer of gold). He also
likes Xerox (the largest supplier of U.S. copiers), and sees its
shares doubling. Other companies he likes are Cooper
Industries Limited, Ingersoll-Rand Co., and Waste Management Inc.
According to Mr. Shaw,
commodities are in the early stages of a major bull market.
Please see the next section below for confirming evidence and
another way to play basic materials – without the risk.
Get the
drill on trading at: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
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4. |
Mutual Fund in a Stock |
For you commodities sports
fans out there, you're gonna love this one. Anglo
American (AAUK:NASDAQ) is a commodities conglomerate.
Anglo American has interests in base metals, coal, diamonds, ferrous
metals, gold, industrial minerals, and platinum. Think of it
as a natural resources mutual fund with a precious metals component.
You get lots of diversification here, but without the egregious management
expense ratio associated with a mutual fund.
If you take a look at its
chart at BigCharts.com, you will notice that it is trading at a very
reasonable price (US$22.13 as at January 19, 2004). It also
has a nice chart pattern – consistently up for the last six months.
If you would like to know how to pick your entry point on this
stock, drop me a line:
prbain@tradingsmarts.com
Anglo American trades at
just 20 times earnings, and has a 2.3% dividend yield. Its
astute management team have grown the earnings per share by almost
60% over the past five years.
This is a nice way to get in
on rising commodity prices, without taking on the risk associated
with any one sector.
It could very
well be that the outlook for commodity prices is bullish. Add
to that the phenomenal growth rates of China and its environs, and
you can easily see that the demand for raw materials and luxury
goods out of these countries will only add fuel to the growth
potential of companies such as this one.
Please see the section above
this one for more on the future of commodity prices.
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5. |
Bonds with Pivots Program |
"Here is how to make your
Pivots Program system work for Bonds:
1) Open your spreadsheet.
2) Click on the column that has your prices.
3) With the column highlighted, go to 'Format,' click on 'Cells,'
then go to 'Number.'
4) At 'Number,' go to 'Custom.'
5) Where you see '# ??/16,' change to '# ??/32.'
6) And there you have it sports' fans!
Only problem is that we have to enter the price as 112. 17/32,
rather than 11217, or 112 ^17; but it works never the less. There
may be a better way to program it, but I don't know how at this
time. I tried to make it work in FileMaker Pro, but the program did
not have a function for 32s. I found your calculations from your
book 'How To Trade Like a Pro in One Hour.'"
Thanks to Charles D. L. for
this! If you would like to know which service he uses to trade bonds
with, please let me know:
prbain@tradingsmarts.com
It has a pretty cool tool that automatically calculates and
plots the support and resistance lines for you.
You will
find the whole shebang on trading in my book by clicking here: stock market successful
trading strategies
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6. |
The Forex: The Hottest Market |
Okay, I'll
bite ... why the Forex?
Forex trading has been catching the eye of day
and swing traders lately because of the contraction of price
movement in stocks and indexes over the past few years.
To illustrate, Amazon's 20-day average true
range (ATR) was $10.30 January 29, 1999. The ATR was a meager $1.93
October 31, 2003. What this means, of course, is that it now takes
more than a week for Amazon to cover the same amount of territory
that it did in a single day during the heady days before the
STOCKWRECK, rendering intraday trading much less attractive to
scalpers.
Consider that the euro's ATR is 76 pips on any
given day, and you'll soon realize why traders are flocking to the
Forex. It is 30 times the size of all U.S. equity markets put
together,
it never closes, and it has tons of liquidity. And, you pay no
commissions. And, and, and ... I could go on forever.
One simple implementation of a swing trading
idea came from W. D. Gann. He posited that, if two consecutive bars
made lower lows, a downswing would ensue, while an upswing would
occur if two consecutive bars made higher highs. Don’t you just love
simple things?
If you would like to know how to learn how
to trade the Forex in six weeks or less, please send me a blank
e-mail with 'Six Weeks' in the subject
line.
Or, if you would like a free report on
making easy money with the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and the
U.S. dollar, please send me a blank e-mail with 'Easy
Money' in the subject line.
Currency Update:
The U.S. Dollar is a deadly falling knife.
Down, down, down she goes … The U.S. dollar could drop 6% from its
current level to US$1.35 per euro. Why? The government’s budget
deficit is big; the trade deficit is at a record level; foreign
investors are losing interest in the dollar. The dollar weakens
without foreign money funding the twin deficits.
The good news is
U.S. businesses reap the benefits of translating their earnings from
a strong euro into a weak dollar.
The United States is in the sweet spot in the current currency
conflict. A weaker dollar is slowing the trade deficit by making
their exports cheaper.
And ... the current
account is leveling off by US$100-billion.
However ...
Bush surely will not want to
head into the final months of his campaign with a wilting dollar ...
because the dollar in part reflects on the strength of the
economy. He will want to do something about the optics is my
guess.
Please read why you shouldn't
kiss the U.S. off just yet at:
currency trading strategy US
Other interesting reading on
the U.S. dollar situation:
U.S. Dollar Collapse:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarcollapse.htm
U.S. Dollar Jitters:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettergreenbackjitters.htm
U.S. Dollar Protection:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarindexput.htm
U.S Dollar - What Soros Thinks:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettersorosonthedollar.htm
U.S. Dollar - The Straight Skinny:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarstraightskinny.htm
U.S. Dollar Woes - Its Future:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterdollartumble.htm
Other Useful Links:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterbackissues.htm
Swiss Franc Play:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterswissfrancplay.htm
The Swiss
franc ain't too shabby either these days.
Switzerland is also in an enviable position with its currency. It
did not participate in the single European currency pact. The Swiss
franc stood at 1.7 per dollar (US$0.59) in 2002. Today, it has risen 35% – far less than the 50% gain for the euro.
Learn how you can play the
Swiss franc through one single stock purchase by clicking here:
currency trading strategy Swiss franc
The Real Value of the Euro:
The average price of a Starbucks
tall latte in America is the same as the average price of a Big Mac
– US$2.80. The average price of a Starbucks tall latte in euro-area
countries is 2.93 euros (US$3.70). This would suggest that the euro
is about 30 per cent overvalued against the dollar, but the Canadian
dollar is still undervalued against the U.S. buck.
European officials don't
appear to be too choked up about their heady euro, indicating, "Let
it rise." This while the BoC cut its target rate to 2.5%.
The fire was lit under the euro
the week of January 12 after a euro group meeting of euro zone
finance ministers and the ECB signaled a green light to buy back
the euro after a US5-cent decline that week.
The BoJ surprised us all
... by deciding to raise its target range for excess liquidity in
the banking system – a sign of their
concern about the damage being inflicted on their exports by the
strong yen.
Thanks also to
Victoria Keeling for this:
"I like your pivot points!
I've been doing some "simple" trades off the hourly charts because
you don't have to deal with the running of stops the way you do on a
15 min time frame. I use fibs but don't generally find them
necessary. 230 pips in just two days. Add another 95 to that
by buying one more contract at the second breakout!! With a decent
account, one could add a contract at every trendline resistance
break during this beautiful uptrend, and...WOW!!!
The Forex is so far superior to the stock market...sometimes, I feel
like I'm dreaming!!!"
Thanks to
George C. Smith for this:
"When getting the OHLC
numbers from the hourly chart to calculate the pivot point numbers
at FX Solutions, it is necessary to subtract three pips from the
high bar number. For some reason, their charts tag on the bid price
with a three-pip shadow.
Of course, this also makes it harder to see hammers and spinning
tops, as well as double and triple tops in the making. I have been
fooled more than once in 'seeing' a double top forming, only to
realize when the new bar comes up, and the three-pip shadow is
popped on top of the last bar, that I forgot once again about this
three-pip ask price being added on. I do wish they would offer an
option on their otherwise excellent platform software to remove
these distorting upper shadows.
Anyway, those silly three extra pips on the EUR/USD pair, when
clipped off, make the pivot point numbers far more accurate compared
to yours from what I've seen."
Thanks to
Vincent Chamberlain for this:
"I noticed that macd
divergences on the 4 hour chart offers some powerful moves and
signals besides the 1 hour chart. I have gotten to the point where I
do not even look at the lower charts. I only pay attention the weekly, daily, 4 hour, and 1 hour charts. I only use the 15 minute
or 5 minute charts to enter and exit my trades. I look for my
signals on the higher charts, and the primary signal I look for is a
DIVERGENCE! The lower charts always listen to the higher charts.
Knowing this, along with pivot points and drawing the proper trendlines, has given me a tremendous edge."
FX
Solutions' $100 Referral Program:
FX Solutions offers existing customers $100 in additional equity
for referring a new customer to them when the new customer opens an
account of $1,000 or more. This is just one of our ways of saying
thank you for being an FX Solutions customer, and introducing other
Forex traders to FX Solutions' advantages. It's simple for new
customers to help you earn your additional equity. Simply have them
put "Referred by Your Name, FX Solutions Account ID#______" in the
Comments or Questions section of the Account Application. Following
the opening of that account, they will add $100 to the balance in your
account.
Please let
thomas@fxsol.com know when
you do this, and please mention my name (Peter R. Bain) as the
referring agent. Thanks you in advance!
FX Solutions'
Innovative FLEXI Contracts:
FX Solutions provides the foreign
exchange trader with the best trading package, including rapid trade
execution, the narrowest price spreads, superior trading tools,
customer support and live access to vital market information. The
package includes the FLEXI contract, offered exclusively by FX
Solutions, which allows you to choose a contract size which best
suits your trading style.
FLEXI Contract:
| Contract Size |
Currency Units |
| 1K |
1,000 |
| 5K |
5,000 |
| 10K ("Mini" Contract) |
10,000 |
| 50K |
50,000 |
| 100K ("Standard" Contract) |
100,000 |
Margin Advantage at FX Solutions:
FX Solutions also offers a
significant margin advantage to foreign exchange traders. Margin at
FX Solutions is calculated on a real-time basis in full compliance
with NFA regulations. Many other brokers instead use arbitrary
margin requirements, which overcharge traders, therefore reducing the
number of trades that can be executed.
Equity Bonus
at FX Solutions:
In addition to all of these
advantages, open an account of US$3,000 or more by March 1, 2004 and
FX Solutions will add US$250 in equity to your account. Existing FX
Solutions' clients that deposit US$3,000 or more into their account
by March 1, 2004 are also eligible to receive a $250 equity bonus.
|

Dang!
Egad! Geez! Are you sick ’n tired of
being sick ’n tired of feeling like a klutz because
you're only
eking out anemic returns caused by #@&*! snafus in the other markets?
Feel like you’re always on tenterhooks? Feel like
you’re dogged by bad habits, hither and thither with
your trading, and at the end of your tether? Is
your trading vexing you, and got you in a funk?
Thinking of switching to another market? Have you
mulled the possibility of the Forex yet? What
about a
currency trading strategy to go with
it? Well then, stanch your losses and head
on over to the Forex. Brook nothing less than the
best. Get over that feeling that the ground is
rushing up to meet you.
If you were awash in cash, I’m sure you wouldn’t be
reading this. Thin people don’t usually go to
Weight Watchers.
The trading world is abuzz with talk about the Forex, and my currency trading strategy is
garnering a lota hoopla.
Action-phobic traders are agog over my program. It
will quickly rid you of your feeling like you’re a
beginner pointing your skis down a double-diamond run,
and keep you from swimming against the tide. No
rarefied expertise required.
Day trading (as well
as position trading) is alive and well in the Forex,
which harkens back to the heady days of the 90s. To paraphrase Mark
Twain, “Reports of day trading’s death are greatly
exaggerated.” The jig is not up at the Forex.
Ardent day traders
are rah-rah again, and the Forex is leaving the other
markets choking in its dust.
Stop being hobbled by bad habits, reminiscing about the
frothy 90s, and lamenting the past. If you are at
all wistful about the heady days of the stock market,
then the Forex is where you belong. Never any
set-backs there. Time to get giddy again.
Say bye-bye to the other markets for good. The
Forex is not some quiet backwater of the trading world.
There’s a whiff of the bubbly go-go days of 1999 in the air again, and it’s
all happening at
the Forex. I call it “nosebleed trading on steroids.”
The
quintessence of TA trading … The ubiquitous Forex
does $1.5 trillion per day, which
is 30 times the size of all U.S. equity markets – 50
times larger than the NYSE alone! The $30
billion-per-day futures market pales by comparison.
Ninety-five per cent of all currency trading is
conducted over the Forex. By comparison, the
currency futures market is shrinking, and represents
only one percent of the size of the cash market.
The largesse of the Forex … It is the largest financial
market, and is always liquid 24X7. It is not
subject to engineering by any one entity. And, the
average daily range for the four major pairs is US$1,040
per lot. Compare that to the other markets, and
you’ll soon discover why the Forex is attracting so much
attention these days.
Most professional traders catch only three-to-four
really great trades a week, if that! Not so with
the
Forex – especially with my currency
trading strategy. Here, the timeframe is
more like a day. And, a professional doesn’t have
to worry about 7,800 stocks, or 72 commodities, and all
the underlying Byzantine rules that are larded on those
tradables. With the
Forex, a trader only has to
think about the four major currency pairs – and pure
technical analysis. The average daily range of 104
pips (read, US$1,040 per lot) for all four pairs handed
us far
surpasses that of any other market. It also has a
much longer “length of line” (intraday swings), which
offers more “swing-trading” opportunities. Lots of
action for both novice and professional alike.
Salad days are here at the Forex, where money doesn't get short shrift!
The two
venerable
Forex market maker
brokers I personally endorse, after a lot of input
from other traders, research, and soul searching, offer
superior dealing software, fast and efficient
execution, instant online trading, and charts – all for
F*R*E*E. The efficiency of trading with either of
these two market makers means that you no longer have to
pay commissions on your futures or stock trades – and
Forex trading is
commission-F*R*E*E as always. Their F*R*E*E online
software improves your trading performance by giving you
the edge in execution, market information, and account
management. Combine either robust platform with my
currency trading strategy, and you’ve got a winner.
To preview
the trading software and register for a free demo
account, click here: currency trading strategy cbfx for offering
number one, and click here: currency trading strategy fxsol for offering
number two. They’re both equally as good, but I’ll
let you be the judge
as to which one you like the best. When you open a
funded account at either of these two locations, please
mention my name (Peter R. Bain) in the application, and
I’ll support you all the way to the bank. Ka-Ching!
When you let
me know that you have opened your funded account, you
will immediately get access to my own personal Forex trading examples on a daily
basis, and receive a “f*r*e*e”
copy of my e-book on my own personal currency trading
strategy for the Forex called
“Before
You Press Enter” – a treasure
trove of unvarnished truth about trading the Forex, that even spells out the
idiom of that market – just for the asking. Let me
know when your account is open, and they’re both yours
for F*R*E*E. One heckuva
deal. You will be over the top. See you
there.
With a demo
account at either location, you can trade “virtual”
money, until you feel comfortable with the process.
Don’t get me
wrong. I still like the other markets too. But,
the nascent Forex is the new high viz biz,
and it’s the hot “flavor de jour.” If you like
futures, you’ll LOVE the Forex! It will really get your
trading mojo going. What’s not
to love? “EVERYBODY’S TRADING IT” is reason enough
for you to trade it too.
Too much of
a good thing isn’t too much of a good thing when you’re
trading the Forex. No ephemeral success stories or
namby-pamby trading here.
Bling, bling! Enjoy! Get ready
to shoot the lights out.
I recently
spoke with a long-time stock broker who confided in me
that he wished he had discovered the Forex a lot sooner. He just
recently saw the light, and made the switch. It’s
never too late.
Come on.
Admit it. I’ve whetted your curiosity just a tad,
haven’t I? Right? Thirty days from now
you’ll either be a Forex trader, or just 30 days older.
Don’t be a dilly-dallier. Quit dawdling, get
over your reticence, and do it now. “The secret of
getting ahead is getting started.” (Mark Twain)
And so,
kerchief to cheek, kiss your
old trading habits au revoir,
and get gung ho again. This could just be the
underpinning to your future success. No more
quashed hopes. Hurrah for
the Forex. It is becoming a “de rigueur” fact of
life.

I get tons
of kudos about my commodity trading rules, currency
trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies on a regular basis, but here is just one of
the more recent ones, courtesy
Manny Sousa, who has been a customer of mine for a
couple years:
"Your material is great. I have already gone over
it twice since receiving it on Friday evening, and plan
to review it many more times till I get everything down
pat. I am not a complete novice
at this, but my previous try at the Forex got off to a
good start. I had opened a Forex account with five grand,
and within two months I had gotten it to 15. I thought I was doing ok till
I
joined this service that emailed me buy points and sell
points. That totally blew away my account. At
that point, I left the Forex for a few months till now,
until I discovered your course and pivot system. I believe
I have your pivot system figured out pretty well,
and I am extremely ecstatic about putting it too use."
"Just to let you know that last
night your pivots where right on the money. This is
really exciting. I got the pivot points down pat and
wow, Peter, you're right on the money."
And, these
just in:
"Hi Peter
Long time no hear. How are you?
A friend of mine by the name of Dr. David Paul
subscribed to your trading system. He is a very astute
trader, and is arguably the most knowledgeable trader
I have ever met. He trades almost any market (mostly
Forex), with outstanding results. He phoned me to
enquire about your system, as he saw my testimonial on
your website. I only gave the best, as I truly believe
your system is fantastic.
I have used your system to trade just about any market
from DAX, FTSE 100, DOW, S&P500 futures, stocks, and
the Forex Market. Your system worked on all the
markets. In fact, I showed a friend of mine not so
long ago (I was trading GBP/USD on the Forex) and, up
to today, he still thinks I performed some magical
trick on him. I never used any indicators. All I did
was plot the lines, and the reversals took place
exactly on the numbers. The uncanny thing is that the
numbers were obscure, such as 1.7686 and 1.6988, and
not round numbers. We even tried using it on very
short time frames, such as 1 min data, which then blew
him totally away, as the candles closed exactly on the
numbers. If you have any skeptics out there, please
refer them to me.
My email to you is simply to say hello and all is well
on my side.
Fondest regards."
Mark van Greunen, South Africa, January 28/04
"The performance to date in
using your system is
outstanding."
Bruce Weir,
Australia
"I have been studying your
Forex
material for the last couple of months, and cannot
describe how impressed I am with your system."
Mick Smith
"First of all, I don’t have to
buy your info. to know that you are the
real deal!!!!! YOU ARE! I’m so used to information
research that I can weed out the 'play' from the
'value.' I can say this even though I have not
received your book yet."
Guido Gazzo
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7.
|
Big Kahunas: Hot
Commodities, Currencies,
Stocks
|
Hot
Commodities
Time to toot my own horn
again. Last month, I
called for orange juice to tumble, and tumble it did big time.
January 21, orange juice futures in New York had their biggest drop
in almost five years over concern that a record crop in Florida, the
largest U.S. grower of the fruit, would overwhelm slumping demand.
The futures have plunged 34% in the past year, largely because of
the Florida crop and declining U.S. juice consumption. Many
people have quit drinking orange juice thanks to the
low-carbohydrate diet craze that spurns fruit.
Feeling lucky? Huge returns only come
from brave actions.
According to my
interpretation of the latest commitments of traders data, the following commodities futures
represent good trading opportunities to the short side: coffee, corn,
orange juice
I did see only one suitable long
candidates: sugar.
Traders, trading these commodities at absurd
prices, are practically giving their money away. Why not take it?
You will be doing God's own work ... helping to teach valuable moral
lessons to those who need them. You might also be paid well in
the process.
Please
adhere to the 11 commodity trading rules outlined in the May/03
edition of this Newsletter. You can read it by going to:
commodity trading
rules
Caution
Be sure to observe the
rules around trading active contract months – i.e., open interest
and volume. FutureSource.com is a good “source” of such
information. That was all explained in my May issue of this
Newsletter. You can go there by clicking here: commodity trading
rules 0503
MACD is a
good indicator to help you trade commodities. You can read all
about it at: commodity trading
rules
My book was originally
inspired by commodities futures, and the profit potential they stood
for. You too can get your very own copy at: commodity trading
rules
Hot
Currencies
The four
major pairs (EUR/USD,
USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF) are
always hot – each and every day of the week. That never
changes from session to session. That’s the nice thing about
trading currencies on the Forex. You only have to worry about
four entities, rather than 7,800 stocks, or 72 commodities. Of
course, you can get the latest at: currency trading
strategy
Hot
Stocks and Real Gems
With the market doing
quite nicely, traders are piling in. But,
not SO fast.
In their rush to "do
something," many of them are simply trading the WRONG
stocks.
SO, trade only the very
best marquee stocks, and play it safe … with the pared-down list of
cult hotties ferreted out for
you by the service I mentioned in Section 3 in my last Newsletter (stock market successful trading strategies new
service), which wades
through all the gobbledygook for you. This is not
just some ragtag collection. No “dead man walking” stocks
there.
Also, Broadcom (BRCM)
beat estimates by three cents a share on a sharp jump in revenues.
Another tech stock seeing higher prices is Flextronics (FLEX), up
nearly ten percent. Flextronics also bested earnings estimates on a
strong improvement in revenues the past year.
Trading
Techniques
No
Hail Mary passes or fancy knee-jerk gizmos here … just stuff that
rocks – but, even Muhammad Ali lost a few fights. However, it
was he who said, "It ain't braggin' if you can do it."
Say “Hasta La Vista”
to bad trades. Hit the “sweet spot” of trading successes with
these trading tips, and don’t forget that almighty tight
…

Don’t
be condemned to repeat past mistakes. Everyone knows how to
buy, but few people know how to sell. When you are trading
momentum stocks, where you are dealing with hairy-fairy
fundamentals, that’s perfectly okay, so long as you have an exit
strategy in mind – worked out on paper before you press enter.
Don’t just gloss over the following information. Please study
it in detail.
For
stocks: Please refer to section 7
of the July/03 newsletter: stock market successful
trading strategies 0703
If you would like a
“free”
copy of my special report on trading stocks the way
the Big
Dogs do, just drop me a line: prbain@tradingsmarts.com
For information on shorting
stocks, please follow this link:
stock
market successful trading strategies shorting
New: Moving Averages
–
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettermovingaverages.htm
New: The S&P 500 Game
–
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettersp500game.htm
New: Swing Trading - To swing or not to swing, that is the question.
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterswingorno.htm
When is
volume really volume?
stock
market successful trading strategies volume
For
currencies: Please see the Forex
Section in the August/03 Newsletter: currency trading strategy
0803 and please be sure to read the entire
newsletter for April/03: currency trading strategy
0403
For information
on FX Solutions’ hedging,
momentum, and
statistical charting, as
reported in the last Newsletter – for October – please go to that
Newsletter by clicking here:
currency trading strategy 1003
New:
Combining Chart Patterns with Pivot Point Analysis:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterchartpatterns.htm
Currency Trading Strategy:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettercurrencytradingstrategy.htm
Currency Trading Strategy - Icing on the Cake:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettericingonthecake.htm
Forex Hedging (Currencies - Hedging Exchange Rates):
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterforexhedging.htm
Forex Interbank:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterforexinterbank.htm
Forex Trading Strategy:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterforextradingstrategy.htm
For
commodities: Please go to the May/03
Newsletter: commodity trading rules
0503 Also, please visit the
June/03 edition: commodity trading rules
0603 And, the September/03
issue: commodity trading rules
0903
For information on when
to cut and run in a commodities trade, the meaning and use of the
200-day moving average, the purpose of trendlines, the Relative Strength Index
indicator, and the “4-9-18 Formula,” please refer to the last
edition of this Newsletter by going to: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies 1003
For more information on the
role commitments of traders data plays in trading commodities,
please follow this link:
commodity trading rules
New:
Commitments of Traders - Funds:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettercotfunds.htm
Futures: A real mish-mash of stuff – Backwardation, Bonds,
Commercial Traders, Commodities, Contango, Federal Reserve, Futures Pricing,
Government Deficits, Interest Rate Futures, Investment Funds, Supply and Demand,
World Economy, Yield Curve
–
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterfuturesstuff.htm
Just some
of the many trading gems you will find at: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
|
8. |
Watching the Grass Grow with Futures Options |
Selling futures options
is like watching an Iowa farmer's cornfield grow – no need to worry about the intricacies
day traders face. Here, you can sit back and be more objective
about the market as a whole.
Option writing is not for the faint of heart, and should only
be handled with an experienced professional, or after you have
acquired sufficient knowledge to take the leap on your own.
The strategy is to sell far out-of-the-money options in
futures markets where there are clear long term fundamentals – be
they bullish or bearish – in the opposite direction to the market.
And, to also be aware of seasonal tendencies. Unless the market is
moving sharply against your position, time value will eventually
make you a winner.
When selling an
option, an investor statistically has an approximate 80% chance of
the option expiring worthless. Thus, if bearish a market, you would
sell calls. If bullish, you would sell puts. The idea is to sell
strike prices either far above or far below the current price of the
futures market. Then, place a stop (perhaps 200% of the current
value of the option), sit back and observe.
The benefit of always having time value working in your favor
(eroding the option on a daily basis) can be a tremendous advantage
with this strategy.
Options - To Cover or Go Naked:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettercoveredornakedcall.htm
Are options dead?
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterdeadoptions.htm
The Magic of QQQ Options:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterqqqoptionmagic.htm
Options Reading:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletteroptionsreading.htm
Options - Synthetic Calls:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettersyntheticcall.htm
Options Terminology:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletteroptionsterminology.htm
My book
addresses commodities, currencies, market indexes, stocks – and, of
course, options too. It’s all waiting for you with just one
mouse click at:
commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
|
9.
|
Market Commentary: The Good, the Bad, and the
Ugly
|
From 30,000 feet – A
presidential election year, especially one in which the incumbent is
running, is usually considered to be market-positive. Even
though historically the market fares better under Democrat reign, it
would appear that sentiment is running in favor of a Bush
reelection. Stay the course, and stay invested at least until the
election.
Tech stocks don't
usually fare all that well in the run-up to the election in
that year.
Get this ...
American consumer spending accounts for 14% of the entire
world economy. Compare that to Washington's US$3-trillion debt,
one-third of which is owed to China and Japan. Will they
bolt? Not. Because, holding American debt is a form of export
subsidies program to them. They NEED
the ever-spending American consumer. Keep that plastic going
folks.
Read the China
connection at:
stock market successful trading strategies US
Other interesting reading on
the U.S. dollar situation:
U.S. Dollar Collapse:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarcollapse.htm
U.S. Dollar Jitters:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettergreenbackjitters.htm
U.S. Dollar Protection:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarindexput.htm
U.S Dollar - What Soros Thinks:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newslettersorosonthedollar.htm
U.S. Dollar - The Straight Skinny:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterusdollarstraightskinny.htm
U.S. Dollar Woes - Its Future:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterdollartumble.htm
Other Useful Links:
www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterbackissues.htm
The
latest market stats. – as at
February 2/04:
Put/Call
Ratio: .61
(For an explanation of the Put/Call
Ratio, please click here:
stock market
successful trading strategies put/call)
$VIX
Volatility Index (a.k.a. the Wall Street's market fear gauge):
17.11
(For an explanation of the VIX Indicator,
please click here:
stock
market successful trading strategies vix)
For an update on the VIX,
please click here:
stock market successful trading strategies vix update
$TICK:
660.00
-
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) this indicator, which measures up-ticks
verses down-ticks on the NYSE. This statistic
summarizes the number of stocks that are increasing in price, versus
those that are decreasing in price. Readings above 1,400 are rare. A
spike in TICK to that level and beyond is a sign of aggressive
buying, and helps to explain a rally that helps push stocks from
negative to positive territory.
NYSE/DOW
Crash Index: 2
(invested)
NASDAQ
100/S&P 500 Crash Index: -6/0
respectively (cash/invested)
A buy
occurs when an index goes to a +6 from a sell, or a crash alert
status. A sell occurs when an index goes to a -6, and a crash
alert occurs when an index hits -10.
NYSE
Advancing/Declining Issues:
30636.00
COT
(Commitments of Traders) – Commercial traders net
positions
DJIA
– Funds
neutral; commercials neutral
NASDAQ
100 Stock Index –
No
clear direction
S&P
500 Stock Index – Funds very
short; commercials long
If there
is any part of this Newsletter than you cannot see because of the
e-mail program you are using, please view it online
at: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
Or, please send me an
e-mail, and I’ll send you a PDF version of the
Newsletter: prbain@tradingsmarts.com
It could be that you are not online while viewing
the Newsletter, as we pull the charts and graphics down from our
site – to save having to send them out with each e-mail copy of the
Newsletter.
If you
don’t already have a copy of my internationally-acclaimed book “How to Trade Like a Pro in
One Hour” and associated software, you can get your very own copies
for the price of dinner and a bad movie! Get the whole
enchilada at: commodity trading rules,
currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading
strategies
The book
and program are for traders who trade any market, not just the Forex.
Please
feel free to send your inquiries, be they comments, feedback,
questions or suggestions, to me at: prbain@tradingsmarts.com
If you
have any ideas or suggestions for future articles, they would be
most welcome. I especially invite any trading tips, strategies
or techniques you may have that you wish to bring forward, and share
with others. If I include them in future editions of this
Newsletter, you will most certainly get proper credit and
recognition. You will also receive a free bonus from me for
your time and trouble.
Happy
trades to you, and here’s to your health, happiness and good
relationships!
Thank you
for reading this Newsletter! Go forth and multiply your
income!
God bless!

Peter R. Bain
www.TradingSmarts.com
PS: I
would be more than glad to put on a seminar in your area, if you
could pull together a large enough audience to make it worth my
while.
PPS: If
you wish to unsubscribe from this newsletter, please send an e-mail
to webmaster@tradingsmarts.com
(Brad Du Preez, MCSE)
Disclaimer: I do
not promote or make any promises about short-term predictions or
daring speculations.
There is a risk to
investing and trading, so please use money you have set aside for
that purpose, and guard it with your life by using good money
management practices and principles, and good trading
technique. Please don’t invest or trade money you can ill
afford to lose.
I am not responsible for
your decisions, and subsequent actions, based on the information
contained in this Newsletter.
Please note: The
Securities Commission in the jurisdiction where I live and work
precludes me from giving you trading advice or recommendations when
it comes to any form of security. So, I present my picks for
educational and informational purposes only, and do not personally
benefit from their inclusion in this Newsletter, or for any other
reason. Nor am I imputing my views to you. Please
proceed at your own risk, should you decide to act upon any of the
tradables mentioned in this
Newsletter.

E-mail:
prbain@tradingsmarts.com
Web site address:
www.TradingSmarts.com
|