COT, Commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy and stock market
successful trading strategies found here. Read
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Peter R. Bain |
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How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time
Sound familiar? You have spent years surfing the 'Net, and studying books and charts in search of commodity trading rules, a currency trading strategy, stock market successful trading strategies, or information on how to use commitments of traders data. All you really want is the 'Holy Grail' of entry techniques. You usually end up adding one indicator on top of another, switching from one guru to the next, until you are so confused and unsure of your entry system that you are unable to make entry decisions and stay organized. You get so distracted and frustrated that you quit watching the markets all together!
Shows you how FAST you can make money when the BIG DOGS make their move - by shamelessly copying this winning group . Even I am STILL surprised by how much power they have over ALL markets - not just commodities futures, currencies, and stocks.G Newsletter - September 2003 This is an exact copy of the Newsletter e-mail-out. IN THIS ISSUE
Greetings from Peter at
www.TradingSmarts.com You are
receiving this Newsletter because you either subscribed to it at my site, or
bought one of my products. It is e-mailed only to those participants who opted
in voluntarily, and is not sent to unwilling partners. Your e-mail address will
never be given away to a third party under any circumstance. Thank you for your
business and readership! Help! I need 4,625 new subscribers to this Newsletter by 6:32 am September 17th. Please feel free to forward this Newsletter to three (or more) of your business associates, colleagues, family members, friends, neighbors, and relatives, and urge them to subscribe by going to www.TradingSmarts.com and accepting the offer when they click away from that page. Thank you! You are encouraged to do so by sending this Newsletter along in its entirety, but portions may not be reproduced or disseminated separately, as it is copyright protected. Thank you for acknowledging this! Other Editions Commodity Trading Rules Currency Trading Strategy Stock Market Successful Trading Strategies For those of you who missed other issues of this Newsletter, you can read them online by going to: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies If your trading is all foam and no beer, then be sure to read my Newsletter on a regular basis. And, please send me suggestions for things you want to hear about. MACD Indicator
Shameless brag time: I am basking in my own
glow. In my last newsletter, which came out August 9, I indicated that corn,
soybeans, and soybean oil were set to make a move up, and that copper and silver
were looking vulnerable to a slide. Well, my crystal ball must have been working
overtime. Tuesday, three days later, corn futures in Chicago had their
biggest gain in four years. Soybeans and soybean oil also
rose. Gerald Appel invented MACD in about 1977. It is the popular moving average convergence/divergence indicator. It is a statistical market timing model and technical analysis tool that is widely respected and used by investors, money managers, and traders alike.
(Chart courtesy tfc-charts.w2d.com) This discussion on MACD is offered in support of my commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies but it is equally applicable to all markets. Buy Signal Triple Waterfall Chartists call
the era we are in a “Triple Waterfall.” This is part of a boom and
bust cycle. It starts out with a bang, and then ends in its eventual nemesis. Market
swoons are followed by rallies that fade. The third waterfall, which is what we
are in right now, is called the “Locust Cycle.” This has a life
expectancy of anywhere from 10 to 17 years. Not so much fun for baby boomers,
who need all those years to repair the damage that has been inflicted upon their
portfolios by the NASWRECK. Last month, I called it “Rougeaphobia.” Good defensive strategies: U.S. tax-free municipal bonds, cash, short-term debt, high-yielding utility stocks, and ladders of strip bonds held until maturity. You will find more on investing and trading strategies at: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies Bonds, S&P 500, etc. Bonds:
The U.S. Bond Market Association’s system posts bond trades four hours after
they occur at investinginbonds.com. Another good site is direct-notes.com. Both
sites contain tons of educational information on fixed income investing,
including portfolio advice – like how to build a bond ladder. Also, The ‘Bond
Bible’ by Marilyn Cohen is a good read. The Fed held the
overnight inter-bank rate steady at a 45-year low of one percent.
They are trying to create inflation in order to defeat deflation. Their strategy
is one of growth at any cost.
Some economists are saying that there is absolutely no need for the Fed to raise
the rate for two years. Going back to the early 1990s recession, the Fed didn’t
start to tighten monetary policy until employment was off the bottom for 32
straight months in a row. Arnold
Schwarzenegger has amassed a daunting personal fortune by doing a lot of
things right, including investing in blue-chip stocks like Coca-Cola, Wal-Mart,
and General Electric – not highfliers. His portfolio also includes
income-producing bonds and real estate. Personal Footnote: If I had to make a choice, I’d take good health and personal relationships over money any day; but, having all three is the big bonanza. I hear so much about gotta have this and gotta have that, but seldom do I hear a lot about the more important issues of taking care of oneself personally and spiritually. Like Billy Graham once said on Larry King Live, “I’ve never seen a hearse pulling a U-Haul.” Good News for Stock Traders Stocks that trade in the off-hours markets over electronic trading networks often have even wider moves in the regular session. This means that there are times when you can buy or sell after hours, and end the next regular trading session in the money. You will find the straight bill of goods on trading in my book by clicking here: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies The Forex: The Hottest Market “Special Notice” – If you have a flair for marketing, and would like to help me grow my business, drop me a line: prbain@tradingsmarts.com I am always looking for people who love the Forex, and would like to earn some extra cash on the side by running a SOHO business in their spare time that has exciting revenue potential. But, you must be “as hungry as a pit bull on a pork chop” to do this! This section is all about my own
currency trading strategy
as it relates to the Forex market. “I've recently
converted from futures to the FX markets. Needless to say, that was the right
move to consistent profitability. Your book and e-books were the main reasons
for switching. Many thanks for sharing your insight on this wonderful market.
It's so much easier to trade than the E-mini contracts.” Important Announcement about FX Solutions FX Solutions’
GTS remained operational during Blackout of 2003. The same cannot be said of
other market maker brokers. As part of FX Solutions’ commitment to reliability
and customer satisfaction, their firm has in place measures that ensure these
goals are met. FX Solutions has created policies and procedures for seamless
operation in the wake of an emergency that would otherwise suspend, or interrupt
normal business operations. An event, whether an act of God, or physical failure
that disables or interrupts the normal course of business, at FX Solutions,
their plan significantly limits and/or eliminates any downtime or interruption.
Important Announcement from FX Solutions My
currency trading strategy
includes recommending the absolute best market maker brokers – at least those
that pass my scrutiny, and that of traders whose opinions I respect and value.
One such broker is FX Solutions. In addition, FX Solutions have come out with a promotional offer effective August 13, 2003:
• Open a new account for $3000 or more, and receive a $250 bonus. Now you know why FX Solutions are one of my favorite picks as a market maker broker. Their trading platform will only get better from here. At FX Solutions, if you are self-trading a standard account where each lot has a value of 100,000 base currency, you can trade up to 100 lots at a time equaling $10,000,000.00 without any fill/execution problems. To quote Stefan Fudge, “You will never have a need to trade more than one currency (euro) with that kind of liquidity! One hundred lots at once is big-time trading.”
Sick ’n tired of being sick ’n tired with the other markets? Feel like you’re always on tenterhooks? Feel like you’re at the end of your tether? Is your trading vexing you? Thinking of switching to another market? Have you mulled the possibility of the Forex yet? What about a currency trading strategy to go with it? The trading world is abuzz with talk about the Forex, and my currency trading strategy is fast becoming the talk of the town. People are agog over my program. Daytrading (as well as position trading) is alive and well in the Forex. To paraphrase Mark Twain, “Reports of daytrading’s death are greatly exaggerated.” The Forex does $1.5 trillion per day, which is 30 times the size of all U.S. equity markets – 50 times larger than the NYSE alone! The $30 billion-per-day futures market doesn’t even come close. 95% of all currency trading is conducted over the Forex. By comparison, the currency futures market is shrinking, and represents only one percent of the size of the cash market. The Forex is the largest financial market, and is always liquid 24X7. It is not subject to engineering by any one entity. And, the average daily range for the four major pairs is US$1,040 per lot. Compare that to the other markets, and you’ll soon discover why the Forex is attracting so much attention these days. Most professional traders catch only three-to-four really great trades a week, if that! Not so with the Forex – especially with my currency trading strategy. Here, the timeframe is more like a day. And, a professional doesn’t have to worry about 7,800 stocks, or 72 commodities, and all the underlying rules that accompany those tradables. With the Forex, a trader only has to think about the four major currency pairs – and pure technical analysis. The average daily range of 104 pips (read, US$1,040 per lot) for all four pairs far surpasses that of any other market. It also has a much longer “length of line” (intraday swings), which offers more “swing-trading” opportunities. Lots of action for both novice and professional alike. Salad days are here at the Forex! To preview the trading software and register for a free demo account, click here: currency trading strategy number one for offering number one, and click here currency trading strategy number two for offering number two. They’re both equally as good, but I’ll let you be the judge as to which one you like the best. When you open a funded account at either of these two locations, please mention my name (Peter R. Bain) in the application, and I’ll support you all the way to the bank. When you let me know that you have opened your funded account, you will immediately get access to my own personal Forex trading examples on a daily basis, and receive a “free” copy of my e-book on my own personal currency trading strategy for the Forex called “Before You Press Enter” – just for the asking. Let me know when your account is open, and they’re both yours for FREE. One heckuva deal. See you at the top. With a demo account at either location, you can trade “virtual” money, until you feel comfortable with the process. Don’t get me wrong. I like the other markets too. But, this is the new high viz biz, and it’s hot. If you like futures, you’ll LOVE the Forex! It will really get your trading mojo going. What’s not to like? “EVERYBODY’S TRADING IT” is reason enough for you to trade it too. I recently spoke with a long-time stock broker who confided in me that he wished he had discovered the Forex a lot sooner. He just recently saw the light and made the switch. It’s never too late. Come on. Admit it. I’ve whetted your curiosity just a tad. Right? Thirty days from now you’ll either be a Forex trader, or just 30 days older. Don’t be a dilly-dallyer. Quit dawdling, and do it now. “The secret of getting ahead is getting started.” (Mark Twain) I get tons of kudos about my commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies on a regular basis, but here are just some of the more recent ones: James DeWinter: “I bought your book some time ago, and it is a good read, thank you.” Mike Clements: “The newsletter is
great, and so are you. You are a huge help in all of this, and I can't thank you
enough for your help.” Twaine Shick: “I have been learning daily and becoming more and more familiar with your methods of trading. Your system is by FAR the best in the world, and I am forever grateful for your teaching it to me!!!” Bob Midkiff, Showlow, Arizona: “Those pivot points are so neat; they brought it all together for me.” Robert Petroski: “I've found your two e-books 'One more Zero' and 'Before You Press Enter' to be really exciting and straight forward. I've already read them three times, and can't stop reading them again and again. Tony Albertini, London: “Thanks again for your excellent educational book. I hope you’ve sold plenty. “ Wilf Maron, Elliott Lake, Ontario: “Your book is keeping me motivated.” Mark McGhee: “A friend recommended you and your book to me.” David Khor: “I am rather disorganized, so your book (all in one volume) is very much appreciated. I am finding the COT information to be incredible - corn went up as predicted.” “I read and re-read the stuff on COT in your book. You are right. That forms the essence of your message to traders – follow the big dogs, or get trampled going the wrong way!!! That is 80% of the work done. The COT has de-mystified quite a bit of it. It does not look so daunting now.” Paul McComb: “Your site is definitely a winner.” Philip Tillman: “The book is real good. You’re a very good writer.” Twaine Shick: “Thank you SO much for the opportunity to learn everything you have to teach me --- I am grateful to you every day for this knowledge you've given me!!! Currency Trading Strategy News
News Flash! There are
“talking” bulls and bears and there are “real” bulls and bears. The real ones
are reflected in volume and open interest. But, these numbers are not available
for inter-bank currency trading. However, they are reported for futures markets,
which represent a good proxy for sentiment because they are
primarily a vehicle for speculation. The yen: Japan
intervened massively to weaken the yen in the three months to June – to keep the
yen-dollar exchange rate more stable than at any time since the Japanese
currency was floated in 1973. Consequently, the yen-dollar rate has remained in
a narrow band of about seven yen (y115-y121.88 to the dollar). Volume has
dropped, and currency traders have complained about a lack of volatility. The
good news for Japan is that their economy has been buoyed by strong exports to
the U.S. and Asia, especially China. Their export-oriented economy could be an
even bigger beneficiary of a global upswing. The Chinese yuan: The Chinese yuan, or renminbi, has been narrowly fixed in a tight band near 8.2770 yuan to the U.S. dollar since 1994, giving it an extremely low exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. This peg has enabled the Chinese currency to track the dollar’s decline against the euro and the yen since the start of this year, making Chinese exports cheaper in Europe and Japan. This, combined with the average salary of a factory worker at 50 to 80 cents per hour in China, does not auger well for the U.S. or Mexico in terms of competing against such cheap labor, and certainly impedes their employment growth. Chinese exports are growing because foreign companies are moving there to take advantage of cheaper labor. The value of the yuan is certainly giving the Chinese an unfair trading advantage. China last year passed Japan to become Canada’s largest source of imports after the United States. At the same time, the U.S. trade deficit grew. The value of exports and imports hit historic highs in July. Every time the dollar notches down, China’s exports become even more competitive, as the yuan automatically follows suit. As long as this tight linkage exists, other Asian countries won’t let their currencies appreciate, which would put them at a competitive disadvantage. As a consequence, the lion’s share of the burden of upward adjustment of other currencies against the dollar has fallen on the euro. This in turn adversely affects European exports, just as the Continent is trying to expand economic growth. A strengthening euro could culminate in recession for Europe, which would negatively impact global growth. China is fast becoming the world’s most popular location for foreign investment – next to the U.S. The Canadian loonie: Canada has a current account surplus – unlike the U.S. with its giant current account deficit. The relatively wide yield spreads between Canadian government bonds and U.S. Treasury notes continues to act as a magnet for international funds, helping to prop up the loonie in the process. However, Canada’s inflation rates were below expectations in July, adding to the likelihood of another cut to its target for overnight loans between banks of at least another 25 basis points at the Bank of Canada’s policy setting meeting September 3. Good news for bonds, including the recent weaker-than-expected GDP Canadian data. Bad news for interest-rate spreads that had favored the loonie. As well, foreign investors have been selling more of the country’s securities than they have been buying of late. (A basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.) Canada’s target rate is two percentage points over the comparable U.S. rate. This represents a two-percentage-point-gap at the short end of the yield curve. That’s a hurdle for the longer-term yields to overcome before the Canada/U.S. yield spreads can tighten much more. Such a move would hurt the loonie by narrowing the yield difference between Canadian and U.S. debt. Australia and New Zealand: Yield differentials are still going to favor the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand currencies. Why Britain and the euro are a bad mix: With Germany slipping into deflation, France not far behind, and recession overtaking the euro zone economies, Britain and the euro zone are a bad match. The pitfalls of joining such a common currency regime would preclude exchange rate adjustments and constrain monetary and fiscal policy choices. Big Kahunas: Hot Commodities, Currencies, and Stocks Hot Commodities According to the “smart money” commercial traders, gold is going down. They have sold it short in near record amounts, with speculators (the “dumb money”) buying record levels of forward long contracts. When such an extreme condition exists between these two diverse groups, gold has been at a significant top. Watch out below! According to my interpretation of the latest commitments of traders data, the following commodities futures represent good trading opportunities to the long side: euro FX, Swiss franc FX, and U.S. Treasury Bonds. See my comment on bonds in the Bonds section above. Gold is a good short candidate. Please adhere to the 11 commodity trading rules outlined in the May/03 edition of this Newsletter. You can read it by going to: commodity trading rules Caution Be sure to observe the rules around trading active contract months – i.e., open interest and volume. FutureSource.com is a good “source” of such information. That was all explained in my May/03 issue of this Newsletter. You can go there by clicking here: commodity trading rules MACD is a good indicator to help you trade commodities. You can read all about it at: commodity trading rules My book was originally inspired by commodities futures, and the profit potential they stood for. You too can get your very own copy at: commodity trading rules Frank (in Ontario, 905 exchange I believe) would you kindly contact me. I lost your particulars, and have some important news for you. Hot Currencies The four major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF) are always hot – each and every day of the week. That never changes from session to session. That’s the nice thing about trading currencies on the Forex. You only have to worry about four entities, rather than 7,800 stocks, or 72 commodities. Of course, you can get the scoop at: currency trading strategy Please see the News Flash in the Forex section above about the euro and Swiss franc! Hot Stocks and Real Gems With the market doing quite nicely, traders are piling in. But, not SO fast. Fedex Corp. (FDX/NYSE): Memphis
Tenn.-based provider of express services; gaining market share over UPS.
Upm Kymmene Corp. (UPM/NYSE): Magazine
papers, newsprint, fine and specialty papers.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO/NASDAQ):
Safe bet in the telecom group. The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO/NYSE):
Contact lenses and soft toric lenses to
correct astigmatism. Trading Techniques No Hail Mary passes … just stuff that rocks – but, even Muhammad Ali lost a few fights. Hit the “sweet spot” of trading successes with these trading tips, and don’t forget that almighty tight …
For stocks: Please refer to the
Hot Stocks section of the July, 2003 newsletter:
stock market
successful trading strategies Just one of the many trading tips you will find at: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies Caution The lay of the land could change, but trade away with caution – and protective tight stops. To win at the game of options, you must ... To win with options, look at the direction of the underlying stock, and
assess how quickly it will achieve your target price. Most people just look at
direction, and therefore invariably lose. Market Commentary: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly The latest market stats – as at
August 29/03: DJIA – Long And now for the
funnymentals … According to Ned David Research in the U.S., on
average, the U.S. stock market – as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
– will experience a five percent correction three times a year. Further, the
market will experience a 10 percent decline once a year, a 15 percent decline
every two years, and a 29 percent decline once every three years. Again, this is
on average. This is based on their study of 100 years of movements in the
market. Place your bets
… One way to place your bets on the market falling is to short S&P
500 depository receipts called Spiders, NASDAQ 100 trust shares called Qubes or
Qs, and DJIA Diamonds. All three are ETF trust units for those indexes. They
followed the powerful spring rally trading through the summer pretty much at
their high points. As of the beginning of July, the short interest in those
tradables was still growing. There are traders out there who obviously believe
the market is riding for a fall, especially considering the fact that August and
September are historically the two worst months for the markets, with October
not far behind. If there is any part of this Newsletter than you cannot see because of the e-mail program you are using, please view it online at: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, and stock market successful trading strategies Or, please send me an e-mail, and I’ll send you a PDF version of the Newsletter: prbain@tradingsmarts.com It could be that you are not online while viewing the Newsletter, as we pull the charts and graphics down from our site – to save having to send them out with each e-mail copy of the Newsletter. If you don’t already have a copy of my now-famous book “How to Trade Like a Pro in One Hour” and associated software, you can get your very own copies for the price of dinner and a bad movie! All you have to do is click here: commodity trading rules, currency trading strategy, stock market investing basics, and stock market successful trading strategies The book and program are for traders who trade any market, not just the Forex. Please feel free to send your inquiries, be they comments, feedback, questions or suggestions, to me at: prbain@tradingsmarts.com If you have any ideas or suggestions for future articles, they would be most welcome. I especially invite any trading tips, strategies or techniques you may have that you wish to bring forward, and share with others. If I include them in future editions of this Newsletter, you will most certainly get proper credit and recognition. You will also receive a free bonus from me for your time and trouble. Happy trades to you, and here’s to your health, happiness, and good relationships! Thank you for reading this Newsletter! Go forth and multiply your income! Sincerely, Peter R. Bain PS: I would be more than glad to give a seminar in your area if you could pull together a large enough audience to make it worth my while. PPS: If you wish to unsubscribe from this newsletter, please send an e-mail to webmaster@tradingsmarts.com (Brad Du Preez, MCSE)
Disclaimer: I do not promote
or make any promises about short-term predictions or daring speculations. E-mail:
prbain@tradingsmarts.com Copyright© 2003, Peter R. Bain (All rights reserved) When it comes to commodity trading rules, a currency trading strategy, or stock market successful trading strategies, you will find a whole lot more in my internationally acclaimed book ...
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