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Big Dogs Exposed

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Newsletter: Dollar Woes

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New lows this week for the dollar: Another tumble coming? (November 27/03)

The dollar fell sharply last week against the euro (hitting its lowest level ever) and less so versus the Japanese yen (reaching a 3-year low). This was in response to the U.S. Treasury Department saying that foreigners bought fewer U.S. securities in September than in August - the lowest monthly total since September 1998.

The U.S. buys more from foreign producers than they export, and accordingly has a steady outflow of dollars. Foreigners will sell dollars, and switch to euros or yen, if they decide not to keep all the dollars they receive as payment for goods and services. The dollar was hammered yesterday over that very fear.

But, that’s not all. President Bush wants to limit imports of certain apparel and textiles from China to preserve jobs in the U.S. textile industry. Such protectionist strategies have been applied before, but not with the outcome that had been anticipated.

It is quite conceivable that the dollar could weaken even further, falling to 1.25 versus the euro and 100 versus the yen. There it gets quite critical, and Europe and Japan would have to accelerate their reforms and stimulate their respective economies more aggressively.

Interest rates in the United States stayed the same. Such would not have been the case had the dollar been in real trouble. Obviously, investors were not scared off by yesterday's drop in the dollar, and did not see it as necessarily a bad thing.

It should be remembered that, according to the Fed’s own model, every 5% fall in the dollar has the impact of another quarter percent Fed cut in short-term interest rates. The decline in the dollar, combined with low long-term rates, is very positive for the U.S. economy indeed, and appears to be in line with the Fed’s expectation of the dollar falling another 10% to 20% over the next three years. All this bodes well for corporate profits and stock prices. More fodder for the bulls.

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How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time

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