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How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time

    Big Dogs Exposed    

 

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Newsletter: Greenback boom or bust?

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Asian Support of the Greenback or Bust: September 25, 2004

US$249 billion of the U.S.’ US$531 billion current account deficit has been purchased mostly by Asian countries, which now have unprecedented foreign reserve holdings of US$2 trillion (Japan has US$767.1 billion, China US$430.2 billion and Taiwan US$225 billion).

Is the buying of massive amounts of U.S. current account debt sustainable? Will the Asian countries suddenly sell off their greenbacks? A global financial catastrophe in the making?

A financial crisis would most certainly cause interest rates to rise. Scary for a country like Canada where the loonie is on the rise. Talking heads peg it at 85 or even 95 cents at some point in the foreseeable future. Bad news, given that Canada’s productivity rate is only 65 or 70 percent that of the U.S.

China is accumulating U.S. dollars to keep its own currency (the Yuan) undervalued. The U.S. is going along with this on the premise that China has huge reserves, and doesn’t need extra cash in the form of higher taxes on U.S. companies.

Japan started intervening in the foreign exchange markets in January, 2003 and then suddenly stopped on March 16, 2004 – presumably because the BoJ ran out of money – and for once was unable to give any surplus to the government.

Bottom line, too many U.S. assets are in foreign hands for the buying to stop or the unloading to begin. And, let us not forget that these Asian countries need the American consumer for the very own survival. So, not to worry just yet.

On the flip side, a buildup in reserves threatens price stability for the American dollar. What might the U.S. do? Well, if history repeats itself, the U.S. could enact another version of the Gramm Rudman Act of 1985, which set targets for eliminating the federal deficit by 1990. Provisions included automatic cuts in domestic and defense spending, if they weren’t made voluntarily. And, the U.S. could move to stop Asian intervention in exchange rates.

What are the implications for the Asian countries in question? Well, there’s the risk of not being diversified into other currencies, and pressure could build in those countries to move away from a dollar-based system.

A very interesting story indeed. Stay tuned.

(Source: Times Colonist)

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