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How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time

Big Dogs Exposed

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Newsletter: Interest Rate Indicators

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Interest Rate Indicators: (as at March 8, 2004)

The prime rate indicator, the Federal Reserve indicator, and the installment debt indicator are the three key interest rate indicators.

The prime rate indicator is the rate that banks’ best customers pay.

Loans are for the most part pegged to the prime rate. A premium is charged in relation to how risky a loan is.

You will know when the prime rate changes because you will read about it, or see it, in the news. In general, the prime rate typically lags an increase or decrease in the federal funds rate, or certificates of deposit yields.

Obviously, prime rate changes have the ability to move the equity markets; so, they should be paid attention to.

The Federal Reserve indicator consists of the discount rate and reserve requirements. The discount rate is what the Federal Reserve charges banking institutions that borrow from them. The banks do so to keep up their reserve requirements – dictated by the Fed. A bank’s loan-making ability is determined by such requirement levels.

Similar to changes in the prime rate, adjustments to the discount rate and/or reserve requirements hit the news as well.

Thirdly, we have the installment debt indicator, which indicates the extent of loan demand. If there is a significant decrease or increase in overall loan activity, interest rates have a tendency to follow suit – declining or rising respectively.

Local, federal, and state governments, corporations using long-term bond market monies and short-term commercial loans, mortgage debt, and consumer installment debt all factor into determining the level of loan demand.

The release of the monthly level of this debt load is approximately six weeks in arrears by the time it is released. However, the general trend the information portrays is insightful in that it presages the probable future direction of interest rates.

Information courtesy Jeff Neal, Optionetics.

For information of how to play options to capture interest rate swings, you will find that at www.tradingsmarts.com/newsletterinterestrateoptions.htm

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How To Make A Full-Time Income Trading Less Than Part Time

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