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Big Dogs Exposed

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Newsletter: Swiss Franc Play - January 14/04

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Swiss Franc Play:

This Swiss giant has steadily gained through bull and bear markets alike for over a decade:

Novartis (NVS/NYSE) came out of a late 1990s merger between Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz Corporation. It is a pharmaceutical powerhouse and a leader in cancer drug research. Their balance sheet has tons of cash; the management is as good as it gets; a new research facility is being built Cambridge, Mass.; earnings are on the rise; and Wall Street is oblivious to this stock. Grab it before it gets noticed by the pin-stripes.

Read on … and find out why you should consider adding this stock to your portfolio. It has everything to do with Switzerland and its currency being uniquely positioned in the economics of the euro zone.

But first … some background … Japan’s currency keeps on rising – despite its best efforts to stem its rise by propping up the dollar. Their economy, which is export-driven, has been smarting as a consequence of its strength.

This year will be a decisive one for both Europe and Japan, as their currencies continue to rise against the dollar. Before the dollar bottoms out, it is likely to fall to $1.35 euro and 100 yen (to the dollar). That will be painful for European and Japanese exporters.

Japan did not peg its currency to the U.S. dollar, unlike many governments in East Asia. This has forced them to buy billions of U.S. dollars, by intervening in the currency markets, in order to maintain some semblance of competitive global trade advantage. Without resorting to major reforms in their banks and financial system, they can't stem the long-term rise of their currency.

The euro is now up ~ 50% to the dollar in the past two years. Accordingly, products “Made in China” are fast becoming cheaper than “Made in Japan,” especially in France, Germany, and other nations in the euro zone.

Japan, of necessity, must now pull out all the stops to stimulate domestic demand. It must also address its banking mess, and reform its restrictions on open competition.

The United States is in the sweet spot in this currency conflict. A weaker dollar is making their exports cheaper, thus slowing the trade deficit.

Switzerland, also in an enviable position with its currency, did not participate in the single European currency pact. The Swiss franc stood at 1.7 per dollar (US$0.59) in 2002. Today, it has risen 35% – far less than the 50% gain for the euro.

Swiss businesses currently enjoy a pricing advantage over their European neighbors – due to the slightly weaker Swiss franc (to the euro). It is quite conceivable that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by the end of 2004, and then take steps to stimulate growth in Europe. That would be good news for Swiss businesses, including tourism. A weaker franc, combined with growth in the European economy, would presage higher Swiss corporate profits and stock prices.

And, hence, the rationale behind why you should look seriously at Novartis.

(Credit John Dessauer, Investor's World)

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